Nach einer historisch kurzen Sommerpause ist es am kommenden Freitag wieder soweit: Die englische Championship startet in ihre neue Saison. Mit dabei sind neben interessanten und teils unerwarteten Aufsteigern auch erfahrene Premier League-Teams. Und über allem schwebt die Frage, wer am Ende den Sprung ins Oberhaus schafft und wer den bitteren Gang in die League 1 antreten muss.
Im ersten Teil der Liga-Vorhersage ist von PL-Absteigern über letztjährige Playoff-Teilnehmer bis hin zu einem Aufsteiger bereits die volle Bandbreite vertreten.
FC Barnsley
Beim FC Barnsley blickt man ob des unverhofften Klassenerhalts (zwei Last-Minute-Siege gegen Aufstiegsaspiranten sowie die „Schützenhilfe“ von Wigan, die aufgrund ihrer Insolvenz zwangsabsteigen mussten) zuversichtlich in die neue Spielzeit. Chefcoach Gerhard Struber hat es geschafft, dem Team seit seinem Amtsantritt im November 2019 den zu dieser Zeit längst verlorenen Glauben an sich selbst und die eigenen Fähigkeiten zurückzugeben.
Die Tatsache, dass Struber wohl dem Verein erhalten bleibt und wohl auch keine allzu schmerzhaften Abgänge zu verzeichnen sind, dürfte den ‚Tykes‘ zusätzlich Hoffnung machen. Die große Baustelle wird jedoch wohl auch in der kommenden Saison der Angriff werden – 2019/20 stellte Barnsley mit 49 Toren die zweitschwächste Offensive der Liga. Hier wird es besonders auf das Trio bestehend aus Cauley Woodrow, Conor Chaplin und Alex Mowatt ankommen (insgesamt 42 Scorerpunkte im vergangenen Championship-Jahr).
Wenn Struber weiterhin einen so guten Draht zu seinen überwiegend jungen Spielern (Durchschnittsalter 21,9) hat und die Truppe auf dem Platz ihr volles Potenzial ausschöpfen kann, steht einer soliden Saison nichts mehr im Wege.
Prognose: Stabile Mittelfeldplatzierung (14.)
Birmingham City
In den West Midlands kann man mit den Leistungen der letzten Jahre nicht zufrieden sein. Die abgelaufene Spielzeit beendete Birmingham sogar auf einem miserablen 20. Platz, der unter anderem einen Trainerwechsel zur Folge hatte: Der Spanier Aitor Karanka leitet nun die Geschicke bei den Blues und soll besonders die defensiven Schwächen der Mannschaft ausmerzen. Insgesamt leidet das Team besonders an schwachen Ballbesitz- und Passwerten (jeweils viertschlechtester Wert der Liga in 19/20), weswegen etwa der Abgang des spielstarken Jude Bellingham zum BVB besonders schmerzt.
Unter anderem sollen die Neuzugänge Jon Toral und Adam Clayton diese Lücke schließen und auch der talentierte Jonathan Leko dürfte die Ballsicherheit auf dem Feld erhöhen. In der Abwehr hingegen konnte man sich nicht nennenswert verstärken, hat dafür aber auch noch etwas Zeit und – dank des Bellingham-Transfers – das nötige Kleingeld. Wenn hier noch an der einen oder anderen Stellschraube gedreht wird, dürfte dank der Erfahrung Karanka’s die kommende Saison wieder eine mit etwas mehr Lichtblicken werden.
Prognose: Stabile Mittelfeldplatzierung (16.)
Blackburn Rovers
Die Rovers dürften wohl eines der Teams sein, bei denen über die Saison keine zu großen Ausreißer nach oben oder unten zu erwarten sind. Der Abgang des ausgeliehenen Tosin Adarabioyo könnte zwar in der ohnehin nicht allzu stabilen Abwehr eine Lücke hinterlassen, doch der Kader bleibt eines mittelklassigen Championship-Teams definitiv würdig.
Sehnlichst erwartet wird in Lancashire die Rückkehr Bradley Dack’s (Kreuzbandriss), der gerade als Verbindung zur Sturmspitze bestehend aus Adam Armstrong und Sam Gallagher wieder eine wichtige Rolle einnehmen könnte. Zudem wird es eine große Rolle spielen, ob Blackburn seine Führungen im Spiel besser über die Zeit bringen kann als in der letzten Saison, in der man nach Führung im Schnitt nur 2,03 Punkte holte – der fünftschlechteste Wert der Liga.
Insgesamt dürfte der stetige Fortschritt der letzten Jahre unter Tony Mowbray ein bisschen an Fahrt verlieren, mit einer ruhigen Saison im gesicherten Mittelfeld wird sich Blackburn aber sicherlich gerne abfinden.
Prognose: Stabile Mittelfeldplatzierung (12.)
AFC Bournemouth
Bei den Cherries stehen die Zeichen auf Umbruch. Denn durch den Abstieg aus der Premier League sind viele Spieler im aktuellen Kader gehaltstechnisch zu teuer für den Verein und schlichtweg überqualifiziert für die zweite Liga. Nachdem mit Nathan Aké, Aaron Ramsdale, Ryan Fraser und Harry Wilson bereits viele Stammspieler den Klub verlassen haben, reißen auch bei Jefferson Lerma, Joshua King, Callum Wilson und Lewis Cook die Gerüchte um einen Abschied nicht ab.
Über allem steht aber nach acht Jahren und über 450 Spielen an der Seitenlinie der Abgang Eddie Howe’s. Mit ihm verlässt nicht nur die Person den Verein, die diesen aus der Drittklassigkeit bis ins englische Oberhaus geführt hat, sondern auch die Philosophie, die den Klub auf und neben dem Feld so stark und stabil machte.
Trotz hoher Einnahmen durch die oben erwähnten, teils wohl noch kommenden Transfers wird die erste Saison zurück in Liga zwei wohl eine zur Eingewöhnung. Das Team ist trotz der Abgänge deutlich zu stark, um in Abstiegsängste zu geraten, ein direkter Wiederaufstieg erscheint aber auch sehr unrealistisch.
Prognose: Stabile Mittelfeldplatzierung (11.)
Brentford
Den denkbar knapp verpassten Aufstieg in Liga eins hat das Team des FC Brentford um Trainer Thomas Frank inzwischen verkraftet. „Die Mannschaft ist nach wie vor heiß und wir haben dieses Feuer in uns, dieses Jahr etwas Besonderes zu schaffen“, verriet etwa Top-Stürmer Ollie Watkins. Und doch sieht es nach der Verpflichtung von Ivan Toney (letztjähriger Topscorer der League 1 mit 24 Treffern) so aus, als würde eben jener Watkins den Verein gen Premier League verlassen. Der Abgang von Said Benrahma in Richtung Oberhaus gilt derweil längst als sicher.
Ansonsten scheinen die Bees in diesem Sommer kaum noch weitere Abgänge verzeichnen zu müssen, wenngleich einige Namen gerne auch bei anderen Klubs gehandelt werden. Die Frage wird sein, ob Brentford auch ohne Benrahma und Watkins das große Ziel Aufstieg meistern kann – schließlich würden mit diesen Spielern auch 42 Tore und 11 Assists die Westlondoner verlassen.
Doch wenn sich die Abgänge insgesamt in Grenzen halten, könnte Brentford von einer nie da gewesenen Konstanz in Sachen Kaderzusammensetzung profitieren: Die eigentlich standesgemäße Spielerfluktuation könnte in diesem Jahr ausbleiben und so der entscheidende Trumpf im Kampf um den Aufstieg werden – vorausgesetzt, dass jene 53 Scorerpunkte ersetzt werden können.
Wenn auch ohne das famose BMW-Trio der offensive Spielwitz beibehalten werden kann, der sich etwa in 53 erzielten Toren aus dem Spiel heraus (Topwert der Championship) oder der hohen Passgenauigkeit von knapp 80 % äußert, könnte der erstmalige Aufstieg in die Premier League nur noch Formsache sein.
Prognose: Direkter Aufstieg (1.)
Bristol City
Die Fans der ‚Robins‘ sind trotz einer guten Spielzeit 19/20 derzeit alles andere als zufrieden. Nachdem die Führungsriege wochenlang einen neuen Trainer suchte, präsentierte man zum Unverständnis der Anhänger Dean Holden als neuen Übungsleiter. Der 40-Jährige kann bislang kaum Erfahrung als Cheftrainer vorweisen, dementsprechend zweifelt man im Südwesten Englands daran, ob er der richtige Mann für die Mission Playoffs ist.
Auch wenn der Kader auf vielen Positionen recht gut besetzt und die Championship in diesem Jahr verhältnismäßig schwach aufgestellt ist, dürfte es für den großen Wurf (Platz 6 oder besser) nicht reichen. Dafür fehlt dem Team in dieser Konstellation die Erfahrung und Abgezocktheit, die es in dieser Liga braucht. Einige Experten gehen sogar davon aus, dass Bristol in dieser Saison eher etwas mit dem Abstieg als dem Aufstieg zu tun haben könnte, wenn teuer eingekaufte Spieler wie Tomas Kalas oder Han-Noah Massengo ihr Potenzial nicht abrufen können.
Wie es auch kommt, das anvisierte Ziel Premier League wird in diesem Jahr sicherlich nicht erreicht.
Prognose: Stabile Mittelfeldplatzierung (13.)
Cardiff City
Den wenigsten Ballbesitz der Liga, dazu die schlechteste Passquote: Derlei Statistiken hören sich nicht nach einem Team an, dass den Aufstieg letztes Jahr nur knapp verpasst hat. Doch genau das trifft auf die Mannschaft von Neil Harris zu, der die Bluebirds seit seinem Amtsantritt im November von Platz 14 bis in die Playoffs geführt hat, in denen sie im Halbfinale Fulham nur knapp unterlagen.
Mit Kieffer Moore (Neuzugang aus Wigan) und dem deutschen Robert Glatzel sind die Waliser für die kommende Spielzeit vorne gut aufgestellt und wenn Sean Marrison sowie Aden Flint ihre ausgezeichnete Form in der Innenverteidigung beibehalten können, ist ein erneuter Einzug in die Playoffs sehr wahrscheinlich. Mit 25 Toren aus Standardsituationen in 19/20 (einsamer Topwert der Liga) sind auch in der neuen Saison keine spielerischen Feuerwerke zu erwarten, effektiv wird Cardiff’s Fußball wohl dennoch.
Prognose: Playoff-Platzierung (4.)
Coventry City
Wenngleich die Championship in der Saison 20/21 wohl insgesamt etwas schwächer aufgestellt ist als in den Jahren zuvor, wird der Klassenerhalt für die Aufsteiger (andere Ziele kann es für keinen der drei aus realistischer Sicht geben) ein schwieriges Unterfangen. Auch Coventry City kann sich dem nicht entziehen, die Mittel sind begrenzt, die Mannschaft fast komplett ausgetauscht und uneingespielt – dazu werden nach einem Mietstreit mit dem Eigentümer des eigentlichen Stadions alle Heimspiele in Birmingham ausgetragen.
Hoffnung machen dürften allerdings die Neuzugänge. Neben dem von Brighton ausgeliehenen Leo Östigard (letzte Saison bei St. Pauli), der über 30 Prozent des kompletten Mannschaftsmarktwerts stellt, wird es besonders auf Gustavo Hamer (vormals PEC Zwolle), Marcel Hilßner (SC Paderborn) sowie Tyler Walker (Nottingham Forest) ankommen. Die einzelnen Mannschaftsgewerke müssen gut ineinandergreifen, um sich in der Championship halten zu können. Die stabile Defensive sowie eine beispiellose Motivation innerhalb des Teams werden sicherlich hilfreich sein.
Prognose: Abstiegskampf (20.)
Auch in Teil 2 der großen Championship-Vorschau wird es wieder um viele interessante Mannschaften gehen, darunter der ‚most hated club in english football‘ sowie zwei Teams, die stark von deutschen Einflüssen geprägt waren und es teilweise immer noch sind.
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